Insights

Performance and market insights - January 2022

Market Insight
February 11, 2022

Performance summary

During the month of January, the CC Sage Capital Absolute Return Fund delivered a net return of 2.01%* outperforming its benchmark by 2.01%*. The CC Sage Capital Equity Plus Fund delivered a net return of -5.40%*, outperforming its benchmark by 0.95%. Both portfolios remained relatively neutral across the Sage Groups^ allowing each strategy to be well insulated from unexpected systematic macro risks while benefiting from bottom-up stock selection.

​​​Stock specific news flow was light in January as usual, however, minutes from the recent US Federal Reserve meeting had a big impact on the equities market. The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index fell -6.35% as bond yields climbed higher on the back of higher inflation and the US Federal Reserve flagging it would soon be appropriate to raise interest rates and end bond purchases.

The strongest performing Sage Group was Resources (+4.9%) which was also the only Sage Group to give positive absolute returns. The weakest Sage Groups were Growth (-13.9%), Gold (-12.6%) and REITs (-9.7%). The Resources Sage Group was driven by strength in energy and iron ore stocks as oil jumped 17% on the back of global supply concerns and iron ore rose 24% on the expectation of increasing Chinese demand and stimulus measures. The rise in bond yields was the key driver behind the weakness in the Growth, Gold and REITs Sage Groups as stocks in these groups experienced material valuation multiple compression.

Portfolio positioning and outlook

The equity market is at an inflection point following the pivot to a more hawkish monetary policy stance by the US Federal Reserve. Recent tightening by the Bank of England and a removal of forward guidance by the European Central Bank also raises the prospect of a synchronised tightening in global liquidity conditions. As we have been flagging, this move to combat persistently high inflation is not a favourable backdrop for asset prices.

The sharp market de-rating in January, with valuation multiple contractions focused around expensive equities, is likely to continue as central banks begin to drain liquidity from the system. Fundamentally the economy is growing and corporate profits are healthy, however stock prices will continue to be impacted heavily by monetary policy. The RBA has flagged that interest rates are likely to go up sooner than the original 2024 guidance but highlighted that Australia’s wage inflation is much lower than the US, where a rate hike is likely to happen much earlier. The timing of a rate hike in Australia will depend on the rate of wage growth as a driver of more persistent inflation, but leading indicators already show this accelerating as unemployment approaches record lows.

The upcoming reporting season should see companies deliver solid top line growth, however the impact of rising costs and the ability to raise prices to compensate will be in the spotlight. We continue to prefer companies with strong pricing power and the ability to control or pass on costs. Russia-Ukraine tensions are likely to continue to drive oil price volatility, along with underinvestment and improving demand, which would have flow on effects to inflation and risk premia. Geopolitical tensions, including China-Taiwan remain a tail risk for markets.

As always, the portfolios are well diversified and we remain relatively neutral across the Sage Groups which allows the portfolio to be well insulated from systematic macro risks whilst benefiting from bottom-up stock selection.

* Past performance is not indicative of future performance. ^ Sage Capital uses a custom grouping system for long short positions (Defensives, Domestic Cyclicals, Global Cyclicals, Gold, Growth, REITs, Resources and Yield). With a focus on the principal macro earnings drivers for each stock, Sage Groups allow for comparisons to GICS for selecting stocks within a sector.
This information is for wholesale and professional investors only and has been prepared by Sage Capital Pty Ltd ACN 632 839 877 AR No. 001276472 (‘Sage Capital’). Channel Investment Management Limited ACN 163 234 240 AFSL 439007 (‘CIML’) is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the CC Sage Capital Equity Plus Fund ARSN 634 148 913 and the CC Sage Capital Absolute Return Fund ARSN 634 149 287 (collectively ‘the Funds’). Channel Capital Pty Ltd ACN 162 591 568 AR No. 001274413 (‘Channel’) provides investment infrastructure services for Sage Capital and is the holding company of CIML. This information is supplied on the following conditions which are expressly accepted and agreed to by each interested party (‘Recipient’).

This information contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. It is intended solely for wholesale clients (including sophisticated investors) as defined under sections 761G and 761GA of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth).

The information provided should not be considered personal advice, a recommendation, or an offer to invest in the Funds. Recipients should not rely on this information in making investment decisions. A Recipient should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information, and seek professional advice.

Neither Sage Capital, Channel, CIML or their representatives and respective employees or officers (collectively, ‘the Beneficiaries’) make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of this information or subsequently provided to the Recipient or its advisers by any of the Beneficiaries, including, without limitation, any historical financial information, the estimates and projections and any other financial information derived there from, and nothing contained in this information is, or shall be relied upon, as a promise or representation, whether as to the past or the future. All investments contain risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For further information and before investing, please read the Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination which is available from www.channelcapital.com.au
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