Insights

Performance and market insights - September 2021

Market Insight
October 13, 2021

Finalist - Lonsec Emerging Manager of the Year

We are pleased to be named as a finalist in the Lonsec and SuperRatings Fund of the Year Awards 2021 - Emerging Manager of the year category. The nomination is testament to the strength of our investment philosophy, process and team, which employs a blend of quantitative analysis and fundamental research which combined facilitates the opportunity to generate multiple sources of alpha for our investors.

Performance summary

For the month of August, the CC Sage Capital Absolute Return Fund delivered a net return of 2.78%* and the CC Sage Capital Equity Plus Fund delivered a net return of 3.80%*, outperforming their respective benchmarks by 2.78% and 1.30%. Both portfolios remained relatively neutral across the Sage Groups# allowing each strategy to be well insulated from unexpected systematic macro risks while benefiting from stock selection.

The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index finished up 2.50% in August with company results dominating news flow. Profit growth overall was strong and outlook statements were generally cautious. Key business and consumer confidence indicators weakened due to uncertainty over the impact of the Covid-19 Delta strain and recent lockdowns. Consumer discretionary and insurance companies delivered stronger than expected results however share price moves generally reflected a sell-off in Covid-19 winners and a rebound in Covid-19 recovery stocks.

M&A featured strongly, notable Afterpay (APT +39%) - being taken over by US payments company Square for $39 billion, Australia’s largest ever M&A deal. Global bond yields retraced on moderating inflation expectations with the US bond yield falling 21 basis points though the Australian 10-year bond yield was flat, likely due to recent lockdowns.

Growth (+10%) was the strongest performing Sage Group followed by REITs (+6%) and Defensives (+5%) with Resources (-9%) driven by the lower iron ore price and Gold (-5%) as inflation expectations eased.

Portfolio positioning and outlook

The debate continues regarding the critical issue of inflation and whether it is temporary or here to stay. There is continuing evidence globally of labour shortages, rising material costs and when combined with the energy price surge, it makes the prospect of continued higher inflation more likely. The US Federal Reserve has also flagged it will begin tapering later this year, hence we expect bond yields will likely move higher from here.

We are cognisant of the impact of rising bond yields on equity valuations, particularly when coming from such a low starting point. Equities tend to be able to withstand a rising bond yield environment if the increase is simply due to strong economic growth, however, if the increase is more related to monetary policy tinkering as seems be the case now, the outlook for equities and growth stocks in particular is more complex.

Because of the unpredictable nature of various macroeconomic factors, we manage portfolios using Sage Groups, which helps insulate the portfolios from macroeconomic shocks and in the current environment we believe this risk control is more important than ever.

Within the Yield Sage Group, the portfolio currently has long positions in companies with strong earnings outlooks that will likely benefit the most from higher bond yields. Within the Growth Sage Group, the portfolio is positioned long in companies that we believe have strong pricing power, solid growth and reasonable valuations and short companies where we see earnings risk and very stretched valuations. In the Resources Sage Group, we continue to prefer energy related stocks over iron ore as we believe the reduction in Chinese demand for iron ore and the oil supply/demand imbalance will continue for a while longer.

View our monthly reports below for additional commentary around performance, market review, portfolio positioning and outlook.

* Past performance is not indicative of future performance. ^ Sage Capital uses a custom grouping system for long short positions (Defensives, Domestic Cyclicals, Global Cyclicals, Gold, Growth, REITs, Resources and Yield). With a focus on the principal macro earnings drivers for each stock, Sage Groups allow for comparisons to GICS for selecting stocks within a sector.

This information is for wholesale and professional investors only and has been prepared by Sage Capital Pty Ltd ACN 632 839 877 AR No. 001276472 (‘Sage Capital’). Channel Investment Management Limited ACN 163 234 240 AFSL 439007 (‘CIML’) is the responsible entity and issuer of units in the CC Sage Capital Equity Plus Fund ARSN 634 148 913 and the CC Sage Capital Absolute Return Fund ARSN 634 149 287 (collectively ‘the Funds’). Channel Capital Pty Ltd ACN 162 591 568 AR No. 001274413 (‘Channel’) provides investment infrastructure services for Sage Capital and is the holding company of CIML. This information is supplied on the following conditions which are expressly accepted and agreed to by each interested party (‘Recipient’).

This information contains general financial product advice only and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. It is intended solely for wholesale clients (including sophisticated investors) as defined under sections 761G and 761GA of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth).

The information provided should not be considered personal advice, a recommendation, or an offer to invest in the Funds. Recipients should not rely on this information in making investment decisions. A Recipient should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information, and seek professional advice.

Neither Sage Capital, Channel, CIML or their representatives and respective employees or officers (collectively, ‘the Beneficiaries’) make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of this information or subsequently provided to the Recipient or its advisers by any of the Beneficiaries, including, without limitation, any historical financial information, the estimates and projections and any other financial information derived there from, and nothing contained in this information is, or shall be relied upon, as a promise or representation, whether as to the past or the future. All investments contain risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For further information and before investing, please read the Product Disclosure Statement and Target Market Determination which is available from www.channelcapital.com.au
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